I'm assuming that the error is related to: couatl64_MSFS2024.exe in the above path, since i don't have MSFS2024.
No, it's not. The installer will download the file anyway, even if you don't have MSFS 2024, but it's not really an issue, it will just download it, but won't use it.
The problem is not related to antivirus (Addon Manager folder is excluded) or Firewall (completely disabled temporarily during update attempts).
Of course it's related to the antivirus, but it might not be the one in your PC (assuming you are absolutely sure the folder has been disabled), it might be an antivirus installed in your router, that has mistakenly detected the file as a threat ( Trend Micro, I'm sure ) and blocked it. Check if you have such feature in the internet router, and if yes, be sure you whitelist the virtualisoftware.com domain.